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    Another hedge fund manager adding to gold exposure

    Paul Tudor Jones is one of the more outstanding hedge fund managers with a long term track record extending back to at least 1987. He was featured in Jack Schwager’s original book on interviews with top hedge fund managers published in 1989. Tudor Investments is a macro global manager.

    The book highlights Tudor Jones performance in October 1987, the month when global markets crashed. “That same month, the Tudor Futures Fund, managed by Paul Tudor Jones, registered an incredible 62% return.”

    Tudor Jones is an aggressive trader, who started managing in September 1984 with $1,5 million under management and his firm, Tudor Investment, now manages around $11,57 billion – the bulk of the funds ($9,35 billion) are invested in the BVI Global fund.

    His long term track record for the flagship BVI Global fund is fantastic.

    Tudor Investments versus the S&P500

    He highlights some of his thinking in his recent report to investors. He has called finding the best performing assets following the wall of money unleashed by central banks, the “Great Liquidity Race”

    He says at present these appear to be gold, emerging market equities denominated in local currencies and commodity related stocks. He says that liquidity is making its way into bond purchases by banks, into equity markets, capital flows to emerging markets and away from the dollar. He expects this trend over the next quarter or two.

    Like some other well known hedge managers, Tudor Investments has started buying into gold. He notes in his report, “I have never been a gold bug. It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time. The economic and political comparisons to the late 1970’s are too numerous to ignore. And as such gold is at the centre of our thinking as a store of value during a period of potentially large and persistent global portfolio shifts. The temptation to directly, or indirectly, monetise rising and persistent fiscal deficits globally means gold could have a bid for the foreseeable future.”

    The report included an appendix on their reasoning for buying into gold. Their economic model which evaluates the impact of inflation, money supply growth and real rates on the price of gold suggest that gold is 20% undervalued over the next 24 months.

    In addition to this supply has remained steady, while demand, especially investment demand has been increasing. Exchange traded funds have been big buyers of gold, having “bought” the equivalent of 25% of new mine production since the beginning of the year and by the end of 2009 will own 3% of global available supplies, making them the sixth largest holder in the world.

    They see a huge scope for the increase in these physically backed securities, saying “The private wealth universe of trillions of dollars is under exposed to gold and now can readily get exposure through exchange traded securities.”

    The official government sector has turned from a net seller to a net buyer. Any incremental new demand cannot be met by supply and must be met from current holders, pushing up the price.

    The fantastic record of the Tudor Investment’s BVI fund from 1987 relative to the US market, merits investors noting what they are saying.

    Have a fantastic weekend and enjoy the Currie Cup finals.

    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-30, 17:20:33, by ian Email , Leave a comment

    US officially out of recession

    A basic measure of a country’s economic performance and success is GDP – gross domestic product. The basic definition of GDP is the market value of all final goods and services made within the borders of a country within a year. The official news from the US is that the economy grew in the 3rd quarter, for the first time in a year.

    The GDP rate came in at 3,5% for this period. Year on year it is still running negatively. See graph below.


    Source: Wells Fargo Securities

    This number was boosted by the extent of government spending, initiatives like the cash for clunkers plan and also a pick up in inventory.

    This positive quarter officially ends the recession, but the there is still a question of sustainability.

    When measuring GDP the staticians take into account the following components:

    • Consumption. This is private household spending on durable goods, non durable goods and services.
    • Investment. This will include business investment into plant, equipment and inventory etc.
    • Government spending. This is government expenditure on final goods and services, including salaries.
    • Net exports. This is gross exports less gross imports.

    GDP is typically represented as a real percentage. i.e. the production of goods and services valued at constant prices, stripping out the impact of inflation.

    While GDP may appear to be a good statistic to monitor in order to anticipate possible asset allocation decision, in reality is has been found to be a very poor predictor of stock market returns. US value investor, Brandes performed some research, looking at annual GDP changes from 1929 – 2008 and found that they were a very poor predictor of both concurrent and subsequent stock market returns.

    Brandes conclude their commentary on gross domestic product being a poor predictor of stock market returns by saying:

    “…investors are best served by focusing on the valuation of stocks compared to their long-term profitability and earnings power. Perhaps Warren Buffett said it best: “You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.” Investors who wait for GDP and other economic measures to provide clear signals of economic health may miss robust stock market performance.”

    So while the uptick may appear positive, there is a possibility that much of this good news is already in the price.

    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-29, 17:24:12, by ian Email , Leave a comment

    Lower inflation... for now

    Inflation came in slightly lower than expected, which helped government bond yields down – i.e. prices up. This despite the fact that government is looking to raise a lot more debt in the next few years to meet its budget deficits. The rand weakened and equity prices fell back.

    While the local inflation is steady, the Australian inflation rate came in slightly ahead of consensus – but at 1,3% it is the smallest gain since the second quarter of 1999. The market is now apparently anticipating a 0,25% increase in interest rates next week. Australian business confidence measured by the National Australia Bank survey rose to a 7 year high.

    Australia became the first G20 country to raise interest rates in the current cycle to 3,25%.

    Locally the official inflation came in slightly lower than anticipated at 6,1% annualized from a previous 6,4%. This was slightly better than consensus and the lowest level since August 2007. Factors that helped inflation down were :

    • Higher base cost for the food price index
    • Declining producer prices
    • Lower imported prices due to stronger rand – although this has weakened sharply in the last few days.
    • Lower prices for durable goods and motor vehicles

    The negatives going forward include:

    • Services costs still high, especially so called administered prices.
    • Further significant increases in electricity costs
    • Higher oil prices

    While the official inflation could well fall below the 6% level in the next few months, the large shock to the sustainability of this is the anticipated electricity price hikes.


    Source : Nedbank

    The rand slipped to R7,76/dollar, R12,69/pound and R11,48/euro.

    The yield on the R157 is trading at 8,63%, that on the R204 at 9,15%.

    On a month by month basis it is a good idea for all investors to track their total exposure to equities, bonds, property, cash and alternatives such as hedge funds or private equity. Don't hesitate to contact us if you would like to discuss your investment planning.

    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-28, 17:02:20, by ian Email , Leave a comment

    Medium Term Budget Policy Statement

    The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement also known as the mini budget statement was presented today. It sets out the priorities and main budget points over the next 3 years. The 5 strategic priorities for the medium term have been defined as: creating jobs, enhancing education and skills development, improving health services, rural development and agriculture, and intensifying the fight against crime and corruption.

    In the opening statement of the policy document, Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan said “We have to do things differently, because over the past 14 months, the world has faced the most intense economic crisis since the Great Depression. The crisis is not of our making, yet its impact has been very serious.” He also went on to conclude that “we will not waste this crisis.”

    With lower revenues, the government is looking at a deficit that is projected at 7,6% for 2009/10. This has been one of the biggest swings in the world from a deficit of just 1% in 2008/09.

    Job creation is a major concern. The problem is highlighted – “For more than a century, South Africa’s economic growth has been characterised by heavy reliance on mining exports on the one hand, and a sophisticated but skills-intensive services sector on the other. As a result, too few people work, and too many lack the skills required for the sophisticated services economy.”

    The expectation is that GDP declines by 1,9% in 2009, but recovering to a possible growth of 1,5% in 2010. Real GDP growth came in at 3,1% in 2008.

    Government revenues are expected to decline from R692 billion to R657 billion while expenditure is set to increase by R126 billion to R841 billion.

    The net result is a budget deficit of R183 billion, compared to “just” R23,4 billion for the last year.

    Then when adding in the funding requirements of Eskom and other state enterprises, the borrowing requirement increases to R285 billion – a massive 11,8% of GDP.

    On the projections government debt will rise from the current 23% of GDP, which is a fairly decent level to 41% in March 2013.

    Over the next few years the increased expected debt of R640 billion will push the interest cost from an expected R60 billion in 2010 to almost R100 billion in 2013.

    This is a big step up in borrowing. Government believe this is the correct approach, saying “Higher borrowing is the right thing to do, in these times.” The reality is that unless they dramatically reduce expenditure, they don’t have much choice.

    The market has been both anticipating and indeed absorbing the increase in government borrowing. Yields on longer dated bonds remained steady with the R157 trading at 8,69%.

    The rand weakened against the basket of currencies, trading at R7,65/ dollar and R12,47/pound with the slight relaxation in exchange controls.

    The market was weaker on global weaker markets.

    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-27, 17:20:11, by ian Email , Leave a comment

    Interim Results for Famous Brands

    Access to listed companies in South Africa that are part of the restaurant business (both fast food and sit down) is restricted to a choice between two companies. Famous Brands is the bigger of the two and has brands such as Steers, Debonairs, Wimpy, and Mugg & Bean. Spur Corporation is just over half the size of Famous Brands and has Spur Steak Ranches, Panarottis Pizza Pasta, and John Dory’s Fish – Grill in its stable. Both companies have successfully grown their franchised business throughout South Africa and are expanding into other global markets.

    This morning saw the release, by Famous Brands, of its interim financial results for the 6 months ended 31 August 2009. The trading environment has naturally been difficult as the country moves through a recession. Consumers are tightening their belts, and this inevitably means that they are cutting down on eating out. It is in periods like this that many businesses will take a closer look at their processes in order to improve efficiencies and cut costs that won’t have a large impact on operations going forward. In this period Famous Brands were able to grow revenue by 14% and profits by 13%, this is a dramatic decrease in the rate of growth achieved in the “Go Go” years of 2004 – 2007.

    The company has been able to keep its profit margin at 17% as a result of low food price inflation over the reporting period and improved efficiencies. Cash flow was strong, increasing 64% to R158.8mn in the period. In a tough environment it is particularly pleasing the cash generation from operations is healthy. Many companies fail during a recession, not because of a lack of a good product or service, but rather as a result of cash flow problems induced from difficulties in getting paid on time.

    There was significant corporate action during the period when Famous Brands bought Mugg & Bean for R104mn. The effective date of the transaction is 1 September and the deal is expected to be completed on 1 November.

    Famous Brands’ share price has performed exceptionally well since the turn of the century. Investors who had been invested since 31 December 1999 would have received a return of 1100% compared to 352% from Spur, 466% from Small Caps, and 331% from the ALSI (assuming that dividends were reinvested).

    Naturally the share price has been a lot more volatile than the ALSI as it is a small cap company, but long term holders would have been handsomely rewarded with their patience. The company now trades at a PE of 14 and a dividend yield of 3.4%. This compares to Spur’s 12.45 PE and 5.2% dividend yield, the market’s PE of 15.6 and dividend yield of 2.4%. Small caps are at a PE of 12.9 and a DY of 3.6%.

    Take care,

    Mike Browne
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-26, 14:50:30, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    Time In the Market

    We have in the past looked at how missing out on only a few of the best or worst performing days over a long period can greatly affect your total return. In light of the unprecedented volatility that we’ve seen over the past year or so we decided to revisit the effects that market timing can have on your portfolio.

    Before we look at the data, we believe that it is impossible to successfully time the market over the short term, i.e. be fully invested one day, and completely in cash the next. If an investor was able to do this they would become a multi billionaire in next to no time! While no one can get it completely right there are very few savvy investors who are able to make measured alterations to their portfolios (note not completely in or out) over short periods (less than one month) and get their calls right often enough such that they are able to make returns in excess of the market over the longer term, but even they can go through significant periods of under performance, and only if they have a solid strategy that they stick to will they possibly begin to out perform again.

    More commonly investors who try to time the market under perform by a large margin. The reason that this strategy is more likely to under perform is because it is one that is prone to human emotion. Emotion is a powerful force in investing and most of the time it serves to destroy the capital of those who succumb to it.

    Taking at look at the last seven years of daily ALSI returns I have taken out the top percentile of daily returns (only 18 days) in the one set, the bottom percentile in the next, and then the top and bottom percentile (i.e. 36 days) in the last and compared them to the ALSI’s return over the same period.

    From the chart you will notice that if you were able to know which days would be the most volatile, but not which way they’d go, and decided to stay out of the market you would have ended up pretty much in the same position as if you had stayed invested the whole time (but with slightly lower volatility).

    Missing the best 18 days would see your return plummet from 163% to 5%, while missing the 18 worst days would see your return sky rocket to 547%! It is clear that making the right call can have a large impact not only on your nest egg, but also on your psyche!

    I took a closer look at the pattern of volatile days, and found that 56% of the most volatile days in this period occurred between 19 September 2008 and 10 December 2008 (3% of the trading days). The below chart shows the effect of getting your calls right or wrong in this short period. Ten of the days were among the top percentile over the seven year period and ten were in the bottom, often coming one after another.

    We don’t attempt to time the market, but rather take a look at the underlying fundamentals to make a decision as to whether to increase or decrease exposure to the market. This method removes emotion from the equation and hopefully leads to market beating performance over the longer run.

    Enjoy your weekend.

    Take care,

    Mike Browne
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-23, 15:17:23, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    MPC Summary: Then and Now

    Today marked the final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting headed by South African Reserve Bank ( SARB ) Governor Tito Mboweni. It is just over 10 years that Tito Mboweni (on 13 October 1999) addressed the media and country at the end of the inaugural meeting of the MPC. At the time the repo rate was 12.32% and the prime lending rate was 15.5%. Over these 10 years we have seen these rates rise and fall, and they are currently 7% and 10.5% respectively. Below is a chart indicating the move of the repo rate and inflation over this period.

    Highlights of that first meeting included the marked recovery in both economies and markets after the emerging market crisis of 1998, but GDP growth was still fairly anaemic at an annualised 1.7% for Q2 1999. In 1999 banks were facing similar problems to what they have now with high levels of non performing loans (mainly due to the high rates experienced in 1998 with the prime rate peaking at 25.5%) but they were well capitalised, and conservatively run. Y2K got a special mention as a concern at the time with resources being poured in to counter any possible problems that might pop up, and how Y2K problems could affect financial conditions in the new millennium.

    The first statement can be contrasted with the one today where inflation and future inflation was the key focus. As there has been no updated inflation data since the last meeting the MPC updated their inflation projections to see how they had changed over the past month.

    The SARB forecast continues to indicate that inflation will fall below 6%, on a sustained basis, in the second quarter of 2010. Data also shows that the South African economy, which has been a laggard compared to global peers, may exit its recession by the end of this year, but that the recovery will not be a robust one. Credit extension remains weak but, like vehicle sales, may be reaching their lows.

    Key risks to the inflation outlook remain wage increases over the short term, and electricity prices over the longer term should Eskom get its way with the proposed tariff hikes over the next 3 years or so.

    As was expected the MPC didn’t make any changes to the repo rate. Pravin Gordhan, the new Finance Minister, delivers his first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement on Monday, and this will probably give a better indication of how strong/weak the economy currently is, and give some indication as to how the new leadership intends to move things forward.

    Take care,

    Mike Browne
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-22, 18:21:09, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    Living beyond Retirement

    In previous articles we’ve talked about adopting a robust investment strategy beyond retirement. In this article we will explore the possible impact on a portfolio if different strategies are followed.

    Very often the most common advice to retired people (or those nearing retirement) is to be conservative. But what does it mean to be conservative? And is being conservative not the downfall to the retired person’s retirement plans?

    Mr Conservative follows the common advice and invests his R5m in a conservative portfolio 5 years before retirement with the following mix of assets:
    - 50% cash
    - 30% bonds
    - 20% listed property

    He requires a 10% drawdown on a yearly basis when he retires.

    These assets generate cash like returns but what happens to the growth of his assets in real terms?

    The graph below illustrates the value of Mr Conservative’s portfolio after retirement.

    One notes how the total portfolio is depleted at age 82.

    Mr Pragmatic follows a more robust investment strategy and invests his portfolio in his personalised lifestage portfolio. This portfolio takes into account the size of his assets, how much income he needs over the short term and how much his income should increase above inflation over the next few years. Ultimately the portfolio should be invested to optimize two things:
    - Reduce the risk of losing capital on a permanent basis
    - Increase the lifespan of the assets to be used to finance the income.

    This portfolio will look something like this:
    - 20% cash
    - 10% bonds
    - 10% hedge funds
    - 30% equities
    - 30% offshore

    The graph below illustrates the value of Mr Pragmatic’s portfolio after retirement.


    One can clearly see that being conservative is not always the correct solution in an unknown environment.

    As always it is important to take each individual investor’s specific circumstances into account before making investment decisions.

    Kind regards,

    Vincent Heys
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-21, 17:15:03, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    GMO Asset Class Return Forecast

    GMO is a well respected global asset management company started by Jeremy Grantham, Richard Mayo, and Eyk Van Otterloo in 1977. The firm has grown substantially, and during 2005 their assets under management exceeded $100bn. Of the three founders Grantham is the only one left who is still actively involved in making investment decisions.

    Yesterday we wrote about investment time horizons and that investors generally need to have long term time horizons. GMO are experts at taking long term investment decisions. Their decisions are based on what the various asset class real return outlooks are for the following 7 years. This view gets updated monthly, and implemented in their portfolios according. Their predictions have proved to be remarkably accurate. For instance in June 2000 GMO’s real return outlook for US large cap shares over the following 10 years was -2% pa. This number was scoffed at as a highly bearish forecast by many investment professionals. The S&P 500 ended June 2000 at 1,455, and is now (nine and a quarter years later) at 1,095, an annualised return of -3% (excluding dividends) in nominal terms (excluding the effects of inflation).

    Equally at the height of the recent crisis when asset prices were falling through the floor at the beginning of the year GMO came out at the end of February and said that their outlook for US large cap shares was a real 8.9% per annum over the following seven years. It is important to realise that these returns won’t necessarily come in a straight line, but if you hold your assets over a full cycle you should get a better indication of what your return over the total period should be. The S&P 500 is up almost 50% since this forecast and it is reasonable to believe that GMO’s return expectations going forward have been lowered.

    Here is an extract of the chart of their latest 7 year real return outlook at the end of September. The full copy can be downloaded from their website http://www.gmo.com/Europe/MyHome/.

    From the chart you will notice that apart from high quality US stocks all other asset classes are expected to produce muted returns going forward. Government issued paper in particular is looking expensive. This forecast doesn’t preclude asset prices going higher from here, but it does indicate that the real returns from most asset classes over the longer term will be disappointing.

    Enjoy your evening.

    Take care,

    Mike Browne
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-20, 17:29:54, by Mike Email , 2 comments

    Investment Time Horizon

    A critical detail when deciding on the composition of your portfolio is your investment time horizon. Many studies have shown that your asset allocation decision (i.e. the proportion that you allocate to equities, bonds, property, cash, and offshore) determines almost all of your return – in excess of 90% - while your selection within each asset class contributes the remaining amount.

    It therefore makes sense that you spend the majority of your time deciding on what level of risk you are able to take across your portfolio rather than spending the time deciding which investments, in the various asset classes, you would like to invest into. One of the key inputs into your asset allocation decision is your investment time horizon, which therefore makes this factor an important one to consider when looking at your overall investment portfolio. I.e. it is more important to decide whether you’ll use Fund Manager A’s Equity fund or Fund Manager A’s Bond fund than deciding on whether you’ll use Fund Manager A’s Equity fund or Fund Manager B’s Equity fund.

    Knowing that asset prices moves in cycles and how long these cycles can last is also an important element of the investment process. Clearly assets that provide higher levels of real growth over the long term will have higher levels of short term risk of capital loss, while those that give a more certain nominal return profile will typically provide lower levels of return over the long term. Getting the allocation right between assets that will provide growth and protect capital is a key decision. Also realising that the underlying asset manager’s performance will be cyclical is key to ensuring that you don’t sell out of an underlying fund manager just at their cyclical low.

    If you have done a thorough analysis and allocated your investments to the correct asset classes at the outset of this process you won’t need to track your returns every day, week, or even month for that matter. Over monitoring can actually be counterproductive as short term market gyrations can tempt even the most rational investors to react irrationally. Broad sweeping changes should be kept to a minimum.

    Changes in personal circumstances, changes in asset class return outlooks (over the relevant time horizons), and changes at the fund managers are periods when you should re-evaluate your position. Focusing on what is required from your investments, and what can reasonably be expected from the various asset classes is a better way of making investments decisions than by purely looking at price movements.

    A rule of thumb is that the longer your investment time horizon, the longer your investment evaluation period should be. This does not mean that you should just invest in long term assets and forget about them, but you should realise that over shorter periods you won’t have a full picture.

    A key factor that we look for in a fund manager is the alignment of his interests with those of his clients’. At the same time we need to ensure that there is an alignment in the goals between the investors and the fund manager. Checking both of these boxes goes a long way to ensuring that both investor and manager have a successful relationship.

    For a closer look at our investment beliefs please click here now.

    Take care,

    Mike Browne
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-19, 17:39:39, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    Pension Crises

    The Washington Post published an article on Monday 11th October under the name “Huge losses throw public pension funds into crises”. The article mentions … “An analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers concludes that within an average of 15 years, public pension funds will have less than half of the money needed to pay promised benefits.” … and also … “They must either try to boost returns by taking on even riskier investments or start cutting benefits.”

    These are very important decisions to make in the light of the low funding levels.

    Trustees of defined benefit retirement schemes have the following options available if the scheme is in financial trouble
    - Reduce the agreed benefits to the members
    - Increase the level of contributions
    - Increase the retirement age
    - Take on a more riskier investment strategy

    Individuals, not belonging to a defined benefit retirement scheme, may also be in a position where their assets will not be able to finance their required income after retirement. In this case individuals have pretty much the same options available to trustees.

    Let’s consider the impact if the investment strategy is changed.

    If an investor estimated that his portfolio had to target a return of inflation + 2% (to finance the future income requirements) but now estimates that the portfolio needs inflation + 6%, then he needs to make sure what the impact of the risk is on his retirement outlook. The graph below illustrates that the investor will need to change from a low risk portfolio (Red) and adopt an investment strategy that carries quite a bit more risk (Green). We define risk not as volatility but rather “the risk of losing capital”.

    If the investor is not prepared to take on the additional risk then he will be forced to make one of the following decisions:
    - Retire later
    - Reduce the income draw down

    The important point is not what route is taken but more to understand the likely impact of one’s decisions in order to sustain the capital throughout one’s life.

    Enjoy your weekend.

    Kind regards,

    Vincent Heys
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-16, 16:38:05, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    Xstrata Lets Another Bid Fail

    Just over a year ago Xstrata dropped their bid on locally listed platinum company, Lonmin, after initiating a hostile takeover bid at GBP33 a share. Today an announcement came through SENS that they had dropped their bid for Anglo American. Both companies are large global diversified miners with market caps of over GBP 30bn each, and Xstrata wanted to consolidate the merged entity into a global heavyweight.

    In June of this year Anglo rejected the merger approach made by Xstrata and requested that the UK Takeover Panel invoke a “put up, or shut up” ruling, which they duly granted. This ruling effectively forced Xstrata to come up with an offer that Anglo agreed to or drop the merger plan. They had until 20 October to make a decision, and with a few days to the deadline decided against the merge. While they have had to drop their plans for now, this doesn’t mean that they won’t bid for Anglo again in the future. They aren’t allowed to make another approach for 6 months unless another company makes an offer, or if Anglo agrees to an approach.

    Anglo has had a difficult last 12 months, dropping its dividend earlier this year and announcing that it plans to shed 19 000 jobs this year. The share price crashed from around R550 a share in June last year, to trade as low as R135 at the end of February this year (a fall of over 75%) after all the bad news, but has been able to recover to R265 (still down over 50% from its high). It is therefore understandable that competitors would be using this opportunity to attempt to pick up a large opponent for a price that is significantly lower than where it was just over 12 months ago.

    With the Anglo deal off the table there is always the chance that Xstrata decides to pursue Lonmin again. Xstrata has over the years been a highly acquisitive company, completing over USD 33bn in acquisitions since 2003 (which was the start of the commodity bull), and it doesn’t look like they’re going to slow down until they are the heavyweight that they feel they deserve to be.

    The news of Xstrata’s withdrawal at 11am saw Anglo’s share falling by around 2.5% until just after 2pm, but from there the price moved up sharply to finish the day at the same level as which it closed.

    We have uploaded our latest Market Overview onto our website. If you would like to download it please click here now.

    Take care,

    Mike Browne
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-15, 18:31:39, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    Old Mutual Look to Swallow Mutual and Federal

    Big news out this morning on the local market was Old Mutual’s (OM) firm undertaking to make an offer for the remaining shares in subsidiary Mutual and Federal (M&F). OM is one of the largest listed companies in South Africa and is also listed on the FTSE in the UK. M&F is a short term insurance company that is listed on the JSE.

    OM currently own approximately 73.5% of M&F and they have made the offer in order to simplify the Group’s structure and create value through optimising their ability to cross sell product between the three main companies in the OM stable (Old Mutual, Nedbank, and Mutual and Federal). M&F is a quality asset having been one of the best performing shares on the JSE since its listing in 1970, and OM is no doubt looking to increase the quality of the assets on their balance sheet.

    The offer to minorities has been made at a premium of 19.7% to the closing price of M&F on Tuesday before the deal was announced. OM has offered R21.25 a share which will be funded through the issue of more OM shares. The current offer is slightly higher than the R21 offered by the Royal Bafokeng last year that OM turned down, but as OM already has control of the asset they don’t need to pay a control premium which the Royal Bafokeng would have needed to pay to acquire the company. At current prices M&F shareholders will get 1.79 OM shares for every M&F share held.

    OM already has irrevocable undertakings from shareholders holding 22.5% of the outstanding shares (namely WIPHOLD and Mtha Financial Services).

    The M&F board has appointed JP Morgan to form an opinion on the financial terms of the offer. With M&F being majority owned by OM there needs to be an independent valuator to act in the minorities’ best interests.

    Understandably the share price of Mutual and Federal jumped up on the news of the offer, as investors have placed a high probability of the offer going through. The share price closed at R21.06, only 0.89% below the deal price. The price is very close to what could be calculated as the present value of the R21.25 offer. Old Mutual shares also ended the day in the green, up 1.54%.

    We have uploaded our latest Market Overview onto our website. If you would like to download it please click here now.

    Take care,

    Mike Browne
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-14, 18:08:47, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    Lifestyle Products

    We have previously briefly mentioned the use of lifestage products as a means to invest for retirement and beyond retirement.

    What is a lifestage investment product?

    This product matches your investment strategy to your life cycle. The general thinking is that if you are young you can afford to invest the majority of your assets in equities because you have enough time to make up any potential negative returns along the way. As you get closer to retirement you have less time to make up any potential losses and therefore require a portfolio with greater exposure to cash and bonds and to a lesser degree equities. As you move beyond retirement you need to have a very small allocation to equities and most of your assets in cash and bonds.

    The graph below illustrates the likely lifestage product model in a retirement fund.

    What is the main benefit of a lifestage product?
    • It is a simplistic method whereby members of a retirement fund are advised how much they need to invest in the different asset classes over time. This will assist members not to be too exposed to volatile assets like equities when they need to drawdown an income.

    What is the downfall of it?
    • Most of the time investors have money outside of a retirement fund as well. This means that a lifestage product needs to be created for the investor’s total assets.
    • Each investor is different. Each one has a different net worth, income requirement after retirement, and life expectancy (based on age and health). As a result there is not one lifestage product suitable for everyone.

    Two examples follow:

    Investor A has a large net worth relative to his income requirement and life expectancy, and expects to have money left in his estate. Investor A only needs a small portion of his total portfolio to be invested in cash and bonds during retirement because of the relatively small income requirement. As a result, Investor A’s asset allocation to the different asset classes over time will look some thinking like this:

    However Investor B has a lower net worth compared to his income requirements and life expectancy, and does not expect any assets left in his estate. This investor needs to make sure that the portfolio sustains his income for life and should fight wars on two fronts:
    1. Ensure that the capital grows with inflation
    2. Ensure that the capital does not suffer a capital loss and is not depleted prematurely.

    This is obviously a balancing act.

    The graph below illustrates Investor B’s likely asset allocation over time:

    From the above two examples it is clear that each person effectively needs a customized lifestage product which depends on his or her own requirements and circumstances. While generic lifestage products are designed with the average investor in mind we know from experience that very few investors actually are ‘average’.

    If you like to view some more information on how we consult then please refer to www.seedinvestments.co.za. We offer clients a once-off assessment on their personalised lifestage strategy.

    Kind regards

    Vincent Heys
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-13, 16:27:18, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    Petrol to Come Down on Wednesday

    The price of petrol can understandably be a very emotive subject as it is a fairly large part of ones living expenses and the demand for it is relatively inelastic. The monthly change in petrol price can be pretty volatile. This has a direct impact on consumers’ pockets and price hikes are therefore routinely chastised.

    The elasticity of demand is a measurement that seeks to determine whether goods and services are price sensitive or not. Goods that aren’t that sensitive to price have inelastic demand curves (generally necessities) while luxury items are usually more elastic. For example if the price of bread doubles you will probably buy a similar amount, but if the price of speedboats goes up by 50% you will probably think twice about making the purchase. The demand to bread is inelastic (at least over the short term) while the demand for speedboats is relatively elastic – except for those people who require one for their livelihood.

    In South Africa, the price of petrol is adjusted each month on the first Wednesday of the month. The main determinant of the price is the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) which is calculated as the cost of importing one litre of petrol. This figure will be largely influenced by the oil price, and is calculated as 50% of the Mediterranean spot price for Premium unleaded petrol and 50% of the Singapore spot price for 95 Octane unleaded petrol. Other more stable taxes and levies are added to the BFP to come to the price that one pays at the pump.

    Taking a step back I questioned why there is such an uproar every time the petrol price increases, while increases in other goods that have similarly volatile prices don’t evoke the same reaction. By taking a look at the change in the petrol price since the beginning of 2001 (Source: Sasol) and comparing to the change in the price of a representative basket of goods (as measured by CPI) one can see that the petrol price has grown far quicker than CPI. The petrol price has increased at 8.9% per annum, while inflation over this period has been 6.2% per annum, a difference of 2.7% per annum!

    2008 will go down as a year when the petrol price really hurt consumers, with the price increasing by nearly 50% year on year. This price increase was enough to see some consumers changing their spending habits. With the oil price falling back dramatically petrol is now a major deflationary force.

    The petrol price is falling by 40c a litre on Wednesday. This fuel pump relief will hopefully be reflected in improved domestic demand for other goods to help the economy out of the recession.

    Take care,

    Mike Browne
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-12, 18:11:15, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    US analyst forecasts

    Most investors understand that the value of a company is based not on yesterday’s profitability, but on the value that investors are willing to pay on expected future profits. Analysts therefore spend a lot of time trying to anticipate future profits or a range of future profits.

    Once they have this they can apply a normalised valuation to these future earnings.

    The US broad market indicator is the S&P500 index, which has moved up in strong anticipation of company profits rebounding from their lows.

    Overall operating earnings of the aggregate companies in this index fell sharply from $91,47 to an expected $38 this quarter. Operating profits exclude write downs and restructurings. On reported earnings per share Standard and Poor calculated an annualised figure of $6,86, but this is estimated to jump up to $39,35 by end of December.

    So reported EPS for the aggregate companies listed on the S&P500 slumped from $85 to $6,86, pushing the price to earnings ratio using these earnings to a massive 155 times at the current index level of 1067.

    This is exceptionally expensive in anyone’s books. But we know that companies came under immense pressure in the earnings and banks especially had large write downs, resulting in the massive decline in the aggregate earnings. For the 4th quarter of 2008 all S&P 500 companies reported a loss of $23,25/share.

    Hence the talk about the V recovery is very evident in how analysts are pricing in a recovery of earnings for the aggregate of S&P500 companies.

    According to US based Hussman funds, analysts are pencilling in earnings growth rebounding up 40% and then another 22% between 2010 and 2011. The growth is not necessarily being predicted in sales, but in margins expanding back again to pre crash levels.

    There is a lot of debate as to just what is the normal earnings level that the S&P500 should be generating. Is it $60, $70 or $80.

    The graph below is the profit margin of all S&P50 companies from 1955. The red plots in the expected by Wall Street analysts over the next couple of years. This data was compiled by www.hussmanfunds.com

    The long run average is around 6%, but it does appear that given the current valuations, the expectation is for margins to expand back to around 8%

    If analysts have been too conservative in how quickly profitability can rebound, the market will still have some way to go. Conversely, if they are too optimistic then the index level may be nearing a short term peak.

    Have a wonderful weekend

    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-09, 17:24:44, by ian Email , Leave a comment

    comparison to 3 major bears

    Because stockmarkets are constantly generating prices, statisticians love to dissect the historical data produced. There is a saying that while history does not repeat it does tend to rhyme and therefore comparisons with past events may have some validity.

    Looking back to the great crash of 1929, 2 other major market crashed have occurred. The current market decline from the peak exactly 2 years back in October 2007 is put into perspective when compared.

    The first mega bear was the crash of the New York listed shares and measured by the Dow Jones Industrial average (which commenced in 1896). This index peaked in 1929 and over a period of almost 3 years had fallen just shy of 90% from this peak. Recovery from a 90% decline requires a subsequent 1000% return just to break even again.

    From this low the Dow shares rallied up, but 10 year later the index was still 60% off its peak in March 1929.

    In the 1980’s the Japanese market was pushed up to exceptionally expensive levels, with the Nikkei 225 index peaking at the end of 1989 at 38 915 on the 29 December. It then fell and 2 years later was off 60%. Bouncing around for the next 10 years it was still off 50%.

    Now almost 20 years later the same index is at 9832 – having fallen even further is trading 75% lower at 38915.

    Technology shares went into bubble territory in the late 1990, peaking in March 2000. The Nasdaq index was the best indicator of US technology shares. The index peaked at just over the 5000 level. Over the next 2 ½ years it fell almost 80%. Nine years later the index is at 2100 a decline of 58% from the peak.

    Source: dshort.com

    The peak in the S&P500 was 2 years back at 1565. The market declined sharply, especially from September 2008 post the banking and Lehman crash to a peak to trough decline of 56%. It has recovered sharply to a point where it’s currently 32% off its peak

    For one thing this history tells us that index tracking is not risk free. Remember that an index is made up of many underlying shares, some reflecting value, others at expensive levels.

    Only time will tell us where the current market as indicated by the S&P500 index will end up. Within any market and indeed within asset classes investors must seek out value.

    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-08, 17:52:51, by ian Email , Leave a comment

    Global Divergence

    The synchrony with which the various countries around the world experienced a drop in GDP (with most going into recession) and a fall in asset prices was something to behold, and will no doubt be examined in the future. The contagion experienced with the fall was remarkable in historic standards. One can’t help but wonder whether this was an anomaly in the system, or whether the increased inter-connectivity that we currently experience will result in this form of contagion happening more frequently in the future.

    While we all fell together we have already seen signs that not all economies and assets will rise in unison. Further evidence of this was seen yesterday with Australia becoming the first G20 country to raise their main interest rate. It was raised by 0.25% to 3.25%, and you can be sure that the Australian Reserve Bank wasn’t concerned about the inflationary pressure that the $1m brought home by the Australian cricket team, for winning the recent ICC Champions Trophy, would have on the economy.

    Australia were able to avoid falling into a recession on the back of a rapid response to their weakening economy (see how quickly they dropped rates in the chart below), their close proximity to China and China’s reliance on their commodity exports, and a strong banking system that wasn’t as geared as the US and Europe. Despite inflation remaining below their targeted range, the Reserve Bank have clearly seen enough ‘green shoots’ taking root to decide to begin the tightening phase.

    The movement by the Australians is completely out of synch with the rest of the developed world. They have just started to tighten in Australia while in the US, UK, and Eurozone interest rates are still at record lows and quantitative easing is still taking place. This is potentially dangerous for some countries in a fragile global economy as any move to shift the status quo can have significant effects.

    Raising rates in Australia, for instance, increases the incentive to investors to move their cash to Aussie dollars to benefit from the carry trade (i.e. benefit from higher interest rates) this move in cash has the knock on effect of strengthening the Aussie dollar and thereby weakens the other currencies on a relative basis which has further consequences.

    At the same time that Australia are starting to tighten policy again the British economy looks like it may remain in recession until the end of the year on the back of poor industrial production (manufacturing production is now back at 1992 levels). This will in all likelihood result in the UK keeping interest rates lower for longer and also increase the possibility of increasing their quantitative easing program.

    The European Central Bank ( ECB ) meets tomorrow (Thursday) to discuss, among other things, whether they’ll be changing interest rates. Indications are that rates will remain unchanged (despite Australia raising rates) but the ECB have been known to aggressively target inflation, and will in all likelihood be one of the earlier regions out of the blocks when it comes to reducing liquidity.

    Take care,

    Mike Browne
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-07, 17:17:14, by Mike Email , Leave a comment

    Gold in dollars at new highs

    The price of spot gold in US dollar terms has moved up to fresh highs, through the $1040/ oz level. The psychological barrier is the $1000 level, but having broken through past highs, the longer term uptrend remains intact. For some years now the price has been moving up in a regular and reasonably steady pattern.

    So far gold has had a very strong decade. This was not the case in the previous 10 years. In 1990 the price of bullion averaged $384 and remained flat to down for the decade falling to a low of around $250 at the beginning of 2001.

    Thereafter it moved up, reasonably steadily, and even if measured from the closing price of $290 at the end of 1999, it has had a very respectable 10 year performance of approximately 13,9% per annum in US dollar terms.

    The ride has not been without volatility. The price peaked at $725 in May 2006 and fell to a subsequent low of $560 in Oct 2006 - a decline of 22%. But as with any real asset, an investor needs to have the ability to remain patient in order to benefit from the longer term cycle. For example an investor may have bought in at a peak in May 2006 only to watch the price decline and have to wait until October 2007 in order for the price to recover to the starting point again in dollar terms.

    In some respects the current price increase can be attributed to dollar weakness. When priced in rand, gold is still off its highs.

    It peaked above $1000 in March 2008 and then fell to around $712 by October 2008 – a decline of around 30%.

    source : Kitco.com

    The price of crude oil has also been firmer, rising to $70 per barrel.

    Longer term there has been a relationship between oil and gold, but this is not consistently the case.

    Bank of America Merrill Lynch apparently reported on Monday that gold prices will hit $1,500 an ounce in 2011 when oil prices move back above $100 a barrel as emerging market growth creates shortages.

    There is a growing view that gold is starting to act as the ultimate currency and generally with paper being inflated, the natural move is for the physical to re-rate upwards.

    If this is indeed the case it is also portending inflationary pressure which is bullish for real assets relative to cash type assets.


    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-06, 17:22:46, by ian Email , Leave a comment

    Daily Equity Report Tuesday 05 October 2009

    Asset prices climb a wall of worry and the last 7 months has been no
    different. The higher prices go, the more concerned investors become. New York University professor, who predicted the financial crisis, Nouriel
    Roubini was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, "Markets have gone up too much,
    too soon, too fast".

    Along with technical analysts and also hedge fund managers like George Soros
    they were quoted as saying that prices have moved ahead of what is likely to
    be a very slow economic recovery.

    With some investors becoming nervous of the gains made, they have moved back
    into safer government bonds. The yield on the US 10 year government bond
    reached 4% in June, but has fallen back - i.e. an increase in the price of
    bonds - to 3,2% and now trading at 3,18%.

    The massive monetary stimulus and low to zero yields on cash appears to have
    done the job of avoiding deflation. Roubini is concerned that the easy money
    has already created asset bubbles in equities, commodities, credit and
    emerging markets.

    At the same time in the US, new levels of debt are being established. The
    state of California is leading the rest of the country in poor fiscal
    management. The projection of its deficit over the next 3 years is around
    $38 billion. Despite suffering from unemployment at over 12,2%, and the
    lowest credit rating of any state, they plan to raise more debt in the order
    of $4,5 billion.

    They can do this because there is demand for instruments that pay a yield
    above cash. The state is set to sell $3,2 billion in taxable Build America
    Bonds and $1,3 billion in tax exempt debt.

    Build America Bonds (BAB) were signed into US law by Obama in February this
    year. They are a new form of government bond, effectively issued by a state
    or municipality to finance its capital expenditure. They are subsidized by
    the US government in two ways.

    Firstly the BAB issuer, for example state of California, receives a subsidy
    from the federal government of 35% of the interest paid to investors for
    purchasing the bond. This allows weaker states, like California, to pay up
    higher rates of interest and make the yields attractive.

    The second version, the BAB holder receives a tax credit from the federal
    government equal to 35% of the bond each year.

    Pimco's Bill Gross waxed lyrical about California's woes, saying "But
    California's problems, while somewhat unique and self-inflicted, are really
    America's problems, and not just because the California economy is 15% of
    national GDP."

    He questions whether the US government down to California "Governator" has
    the capital, vision, and discipline of citizens to turn things around.

    He concludes by suggesting where investors should focus. ". high quality
    bonds and steady dividend paying stocks that can survive, if not thrive, in
    our journey to a "new normal" economy of slower growth, muted profit gains,
    and potential capital destruction via default, abrogation of property
    rights, and dollar devaluation."

    Increasingly investors should question not just the risk premium, but the
    ability of the issuer to sustain payment in the years to come.

    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-05, 20:41:08, by admin Email , Leave a comment

    Debt issuance in an overleveraged world

    Asset prices climb a wall of worry and the last 7 months has been no different. The higher prices go, the more concerned investors become. New York University professor, who predicted the financial crisis, Nouriel Roubini was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, “Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast”.

    Along with technical analysts and also hedge fund managers like George Soros they were quoted as saying that prices have moved ahead of what is likely to be a very slow economic recovery.

    With some investors becoming nervous of the gains made, they have moved back into safer government bonds. The yield on the US 10 year government bond reached 4% in June, but has fallen back – i.e. an increase in the price of bonds – to 3,2% and now trading at 3,18%.

    The massive monetary stimulus and low to zero yields on cash appears to have done the job of avoiding deflation. Roubini is concerned that the easy money has already created asset bubbles in equities, commodities, credit and emerging markets.

    At the same time in the US, new levels of debt are being established. The state of California is leading the rest of the country in poor fiscal management. The projection of its deficit over the next 3 years is around $38 billion. Despite suffering from unemployment at over 12,2%, and the lowest credit rating of any state, they plan to raise more debt in the order of $4,5 billion.

    They can do this because there is demand for instruments that pay a yield above cash. The state is set to sell $3,2 billion in taxable Build America Bonds and $1,3 billion in tax exempt debt.

    Build America Bonds (BAB) were signed into US law by Obama in February this year. They are a new form of government bond, effectively issued by a state or municipality to finance its capital expenditure. They are subsidized by the US government in two ways.

    Firstly the BAB issuer, for example state of California, receives a subsidy from the federal government of 35% of the interest paid to investors for purchasing the bond. This allows weaker states, like California, to pay up higher rates of interest and make the yields attractive.

    The second version, the BAB holder receives a tax credit from the federal government equal to 35% of the bond each year.

    Pimco’s Bill Gross waxed lyrical about California’s woes, saying “But California’s problems, while somewhat unique and self-inflicted, are really America’s problems, and not just because the California economy is 15% of national GDP.”

    He questions whether the US government down to California “Governator” has the capital, vision, and discipline of citizens to turn things around.

    He concludes by suggesting where investors should focus. “… high quality bonds and steady dividend paying stocks that can survive, if not thrive, in our journey to a “new normal” economy of slower growth, muted profit gains, and potential capital destruction via default, abrogation of property rights, and dollar devaluation.”

    Increasingly investors should question not just the risk premium, but the ability of the issuer to sustain payment in the years to come.

    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-05, 18:05:01, by ian Email , Leave a comment

    Economic data impacts global share prices

    The first couple of days into the fourth quarter have seen some pullback in prices. Economic data remains weak. In the US the Dow and the S&P 500 suffered their worst one day fall in 3 months. The Friday opening was no better and share prices are down as investors have turned a bit more pessimistic.

    The big indicator that many look to is the US unemployment rate. Job losses in the US accelerated last month and the unemployment rate has climbed to 9,8%, the highest since 1983.

    The US is shedding jobs and in September reports indicated that payrolls were down 263 000, exceeding the average forecast of 175 000 on Bloomberg. In addition to these losses, the previous stats were revised down, with the September losses bringing the total jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to a massive 7,2 million. This is the biggest decline since the Great Depression.

    As expected sales of cars and light trucks plunged in September following the $3 billion cash for clunkers plan, which ended in late August and which forced a surge of new car sales. In August the annualised figure in the US was pushed up to 14,1 million units.

    In September this plunged to an annualised 9,2 million units.

    GM reported the biggest decline with sales dropping 45% from a year earlier.

    Local car sales

    Locally car sales increased in September to 31726 units up from 29675 in August - a 6,9% month on month gain. Passenger sales were up 7,9%.

    In total the year on year decline has reduced to 22,4%.

    It does appear that we have reached a trough – but sales are far off the peak of late 2006.


    Source : Nedbank

    The JSE is down across the board. The rand is firmer and gold is up slightly staying above the $1000 dollar level

    Have a great weekend

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-02, 17:07:03, by ian Email , Leave a comment

    Going into the final quarter of 2009

    We are now into the fourth quarter of 2009. The rally in prices from the mid first quarter held up in September, but values are now not as attractive and there are some signs that the momentum is slowing.

    The JSE All Share index ended 2008 at 21509. It promptly fell for the first few months to the end of February to a low of 18120 before starting its rally up to the end of September where it closed at 24911 off its peak of 25920.

    Despite this volatility, for the 9 months of 2009 and across the main sectors of the JSE, the returns have been very reasonable. Clearly within the main sectors the performance varied a lot more dramatically, but it is interesting to see how similar the return has been for the 3 main components to the local market.

    The sharp rally in prices has moved the valuation of the overall market from a price to earnings ratio of a mean of 10,1 over the last 12 months to a current 14,6 times.

    While the offshore equities on various markets have also performed strongly for the last 9 months a rand investor has not necessarily benefited, given the strong rand. From the end of 2009, the rand has gained some 20%.

    The returns across global markets in US dollar terms have been attractive, but again a large dose of this has come from dollar weakness against other global currencies.

    The weak dollar also helped assist the price of an ounce of gold. It moved up from $875/oz at the end of 2008 to close at $1008 yesterday – a gain of 15,1%

    No one knows what the final quarter of 2009 will hold. Should asset prices remain flat for the full year, the gains already achieved will be very acceptable. In fact merely looking at these percentages, one would be forgiven in thinking that markets displayed no volatility in 2009.

    Kind regards

    Ian de Lange
    info@seedinvestments.co.za
    www.seedinvestments.co.za
    021 9144 966

    Permalink2009-10-01, 17:36:13, by ian Email , Leave a comment